The Five Most Important Statistical Factors in Winning Basketball Games
Brian Williams
The Coaching Toolbox
I learned from my mentor, Coach Mike Sorrell, that the five most important TEAM statistical categories are:
1) Field Goal Percentage
2) Free Throw Percentage
3) Rebounds
4) Turnovers
5) Fouls
We never ranked them in order of importance, but Coach Sorrell always geared each season’s overall plan and then game planned for each opponent to be able to win at least three of the five categories as I did when I left his program to become a head coach.
I have found in the 100s of high school games that I have been involved in that it is nearly impossible to win three of the five categories and lose the game. The times that it is possible are when one team dominates the three point shooting or is able to get more possessions by getting the last shot of each quarter.
I have also learned that is is very difficult to win all five categories. The few times the teams I coached have been able to win all five categories, the results have been lopsided victories.
Tom Crean conducted a study using Statistics from 2005 Big Ten, ACC, SEC, Big 12, and CUSA Season games that shows that there actually is an order of importance to those statistics.
I found the results of Coach Crean’s study in the newsletter distributed by Coach Creighton Burns:
- The team that recorded the high field goal percentage was the winner in 75 percent of the games.
- The team that scored the most free throws was the eventual winner in 70 percent of the games.
- The team that recovered the higher number of rebounds was the winner 65 percent of the time.
- The team that committed the higher number of personal fouls was the eventual winner in oniy 25 percent of the games.
- The team that held the point advantage at halftime was the winner 74 percent of the time.
After seeing the study, I am even more convinced as to the value of keeping the ball out of the lane on defense, taking care of the ball to get high percentage shots on offense, and playing very hard on defense, but without fouling as the staple ingredients for our system of play year in and year out.
Basketball Coaching
Seattle Basketball
Great post! We’ve probably all read or talked about this before, as you stated you learned the importance of those 5 areas from your mentor, Coach Sorrell.
The key component here is the final paragraph…so many coaches know that FG% is critical to success (both offensively and defensively) yet they insist on playing a style of defense that often exposes the basket and puts players into fouling situations.
Value the ball
Attack the painted area via dribble, cut, or post entry
Attacking the lane also creates potential FT opportunities
Get good shots
Contain the dribble drive
Contest every shot, without fouling
Rebound
If you play with a shot clock, utilize that as another “defender” by tempo pressing or trapping in the halfcourt since the clock is on your side forcing the offense to shoot. You can scramble, recover, contest without fouling, and rebound in a shorter time block…while still being solid.
Good topic, I’ll be sure to forward to my coaching buddies!
Chris
Great feedback, Coach!
I just recently read Dean Oliver’s book, “Basketball on Paper” and his conclusions are very similar to yours with one, surprisingly, significant difference…Oliver’s statistical analysis (and he is a CalTech grad) indicates that free-throw percentage is not nearly as important as merely getting to the free throw line (i.e., the number of attempts alone is a much stronger indicator of success than the percentage of made free throws!
According to Oliver, the four most important keys for team success are:
1. Shoot a high field goal percentage.
2. Not committing turnovers.
3. Getting offensive rebounds.
4. Getting to the foul line frequently.
Teams that consistently win basketball games do at least three of these things well. If a team doesn’t shoot well, it better do the other three things very well. I should note that Oliver says these factors should be considered on the basis of the number of a team’s possessions compared to its opponent, not in absolute terms. In other words, he looks at efficiency, for example, the number of made shots per possession, or the number of turnovers per possession, not total points or turnovers, which can vary greatly depending on the pace of the game. Thus when evaluating individual player’s performances the goal should obviously be to determine how well a player helps a team do these things that win basketball games. From an offensive perspective, the player should:
1. Shoot a high field goal percentage or help teammates shoot a high percentage through assists and playmaking.
2. Avoid turnovers.
3. Get offensive rebounds.
4. Draw fouls.
Conversely, on the defensive end, the player should:
1. Make offensive players take low percentage shots.
2. Cause turnovers.
3. Box out and prevent offensive rebounds.
4. Avoid fouls.
Turnovers are important because they prevent you from even getting a shot off and guarantee a scoreless possession. According to Oliver, the NBA team with fewer turnovers wins about 58 percent of the time. If field goal percentages are about equal, the team with fewer turnovers wins 69 percent of the time.
Offensive rebounding can make up for a poor shooting percentage, particularly as shots off of offensive rebounds generally are more likely to result in scores than initial field goal attempts. Oliver refers to a study that found that offensive rebounders increase their field goal percentage from 41 to 48 percent and their points per play from about .80 to .94 which is a huge difference. In the NBA, if shooting percentages are about equal, the team with more offensive rebounds wins 63 percent of the games.
I was very surprised to read that it is apparently more important to get to the foul line frequently than it is to hit a high percentage of free throws. The data indicates that, if shooting percentages are equal, the NBA team that commits fewer fouls wins 67 percent of the games.
Evaluating individual offensive and defensive performance effectively obviously requires a lot of detailed data about what a player does in the game (not to mention a good computer program). But even with all the data possible, assessments (especially defensive) require a lot of subjective judgment. For example, which defenders should get credit for a turnover, the one harassing the passer or the one who stole the pass? Who failed to box out the offensive rebounder? Whose fault is it if a help defender picks up a foul? Should the credit or blame be split between two defenders? It is my belief that in order to make these kinds of judgments effectively, you really have to be there…there is a lot of “context” that is missed or misunderstood, etc. if you rely purely on film.
how can we avoid fouls?
How to avoid fouls:
I think you do this by consistently emphasizing both aggressive defense AND proper positioning. Kids can have a tendency to misinterpret a coach’s demands for aggressive play by playing aggressively and unsoundly at the same time.
I constantly find myself telling my teams that a foul negates all of the effort that a team puts in on any defensive possession. Try to consistently emphasize: proper footwork, proper positioning, not reaching, etc.